Election Mathematics

Trump, most of his administration and many of his supporters still aren't capable of accepting defeat. The online and offline discussion about whether Joe Biden won this election fair and square continues; on my own posts also I still receive comments from readers who claim they have evidence of election fraud, systemic election fraud even, on the Democratic party's side. But just like with Trump, that evidence is never shown.

_{source: YouTube}

Let me start by saying that IF there's significant fraud at play, that should be addressed, no question about it. Problems arise however when one side makes some pretty damning claims without being able to back them up and without showing evidence that holds up in court; that's exactly what's happening right now with the dozens of lawsuits the Trump campaign has filed and still is filing. All but one have been dismissed. It's gotten so bad that even Fox News, the traditional Republican propaganda channel, had to cut off a press conference in which Kayleigh McEnany asserted that the Democratic party is "welcoming fraud and illegal voting". Fox News rightly said that if you make such bold accusations, you'd better be ably to substantiate them with some actual proof, and stopped airing the press conference until such time that proof is given; they never returned, so yet again no proof was present, only accusations, hearsay and conjecture.

I'm perfectly willing and able to adjust my opinion about this whole ugly deal if and when the Trumpers come up with something substantial, but until that time they better realize that this election is over and done with, Trump lost, Biden won. In every American election there's some (maybe even a lot) manipulation going on, not one election is 100% fair and honest, but within those parameters nothing extraordinary is going on in this particular election. And as far as I'm able to form an opinion by following the news, Trump's attempts to hang on to the presidency are no more than an authoritarian narcissist's gambit. He has built, not only as president but during the entire time he's been in the public spotlights, an image as a winner, and he repeatedly insulted less successful people as weak losers; he even did that to the nation's troops in the military. I can see how it's difficult for him now to admit he himself is one of those weak losers. But that's exactly what he shows himself to be right now; a weak, sore loser, who blames everything and everyone but himself for this loss, to the point that he's willing to damage the American people's trust in whatever little democracy they have left. There's no predicting what it will do to the country if tens of millions believe his every word and go on in life convinced that they've been cheated, or that their dear leader has been cheated out of the White House. This disinformation campaign is, in short, poisonous.

That he and his campaign are lying about dozens of fraud claims, voting irregularities and counting inconsistencies, becomes apparent when we compare what his own team says in public as opposed to what they say in court. How many times have we heard that Republican poll watchers weren't allowed to observe and inspect the vote count? Yet, when asked by a judge, who's frankly had enough of their baseless claims, if Republican poll watchers were present in the counting facility, their lawyer answers that yes, there were a "non zero" amount of Republican watchers in the room. For more on that and other legal cases that are doomed to fail, watch the below linked video by a legal expert who explains why all these lawsuits have been dismissed and why they most probably won't affect the outcome of this election. In court lawyers are compelled to speak the truth, when in public before cameras they can say whatever they want, and Trump wants his supporters to believe that he actually won. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump himself already knows he's lost, maybe we'll get that confession in some future book that'll undoubtedly grace the top of several best seller lists and make him even more millions.

Mr. Trump's own lawyers admitted there are representatives from the campaign in the convention center where ballots are being processed, according to CNN. During a hearing in a separate case filed in federal court, Jerome Marcus, a lawyer for the campaign, told Judge Paul Diamond "there's a non-zero number of people in the room."
_{source: CBS News}

One reason he wants his supporters to believe that he won, is so that he can make one last scam before he leaves or is escorted out of the White House. Trump and his team have begun to send out urgent fundraising emails asking for donations to pay for recounts and legal fees so that they can prove Trump really won. Really? I can't imagine anyone at this point in time would be so gullible to actually donate their money to a cause that as of to date seems a lost cause. And if you read these emails carefully, they say that about half the money will be used for something else... For more on that, watch the short video linked below. To be clear: I, nor anyone else can prove definitively that Trump spreads these false accusations about election fraud in order to be able to run this last scam, it's just that it fits so perfectly with his long history of scams, fraudulent deals and ill-fated court-cases. To his top-achievements we can now add using the highest office in the country for personal enrichment.

After pointing to the video from a legal expert above, I feel it's also necessary to bring in some expert mathematicians; many discussions online, as well as one response on my posts, point to anomalies in the vote count that would expose fraud by applying Benford's Law to the numbers. Benford's Law is indeed used to show fraud, mostly in accounting, but as you'll see in the last video today, it's "problematic at best" to use it in an effort to show or prove election fraud. I admit that I thought it couldn't be used for the wrong reasons; I thought it had to do with this year's exceptional circumstance of having record numbers of mail-in votes and the fact that these are counted last in many states. But that's not it; the truth is even worse, as explained in the video's linked below. Benford's Law is about the distribution of numbers based on their leading digit, and therefore only works with numbers that span a considerable amount of orders of magnitude. Wait, that sounds complicated... But it's not, not really. Just watch these two videos and you'll understand why the use of Benford's law on the vote count of Chicago, the one that's referenced mostly in the raging discussions, is literally useless because of the fact that the populations of Chicago's precincts do not span many orders of magnitude; the last video even shows how another similar method (using the last digits instead of leading digits) can be used to show potential irregularities in Trump's votes...

The above linked video gives us a good basic understanding of Benford's law; watch that one first, and then watch the below linked video to get an explanation about how it applies (or not) to the 2020 election, or any election for that matter. In the meantime I'm open to any real evidence regarding election fraud if anyone has it. But if you have such evidence I'd advice you to take it to the Trump legal team, it's your chance to become famous as the one that saved Trump's presidency and you'll surely be rewarded handsomely; don't donate to the fundraiser, but share your evidence, it'll save you money and it'll save Trump further embarrassment.

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